El Niño Update Nov. 12 and NOAA Winter Outlook Update Nov. 19, 2026: Release Dates

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues its next El Niño update on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, and updates the winter outlook on Thursday, Nov. 19. The CPC’s Oct. 8 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion says “The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 November 2026,” and NOAA’s Oct. 15 winter outlook release says “The next update will be available on November 19.”

What does NOAA’s current El Niño forecast say?

The CPC’s Oct. 8, 2026 discussion lists the ENSO Alert System Status as “El Niño Advisory.” Its synopsis says a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, “remaining greater than an 83% chance.”

The discussion also gives chances of a historic event, defined as a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of +2.5°C or more:

Season (CPC, Oct. 8, 2026)	Chance of a historic event
September-November	54%
October-December	83%
November-January	70%

The CPC’s hurricane outlook page, issued Aug. 6, 2026, defines strong or very strong events as a RONI value of 1.5°C or more, and very strong as 2.0°C or more. The CPC’s RONI page says warm conditions mean a RONI greater than 0.5.

Is “super El Niño” an official term?

No. It is a media term. NOAA’s pages say “strong-to-very strong” and “very strong.” This story uses NOAA’s words.

What are NOAA’s forecast release dates this month?

The CPC schedule says forecasts are released on the third Thursday of the month, generally around 8:30 a.m. ET on a scheduled release date. The 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30 a.m. ET. Weekdays below are computed by us.

Date	Weekday	Time (ET)	Product	Covers
Nov. 5	Thursday	Due by this date	RONI update	The RONI page says it is “updated by the 5th of each month”
Nov. 12	Thursday	Not stated	ENSO Diagnostic Discussion	Next El Niño status and outlook
Nov. 19	Thursday	About 8:30 a.m.	Winter outlook update, long-lead outlooks	December 2026 and December-February (DJF) 2026 to 2027
Dec. 2	Wednesday	On or about this date	2027 release schedule	The CPC’s dates for 2027
Dec. 17	Thursday	About 8:30 a.m.	Next long-lead outlooks	January-March (JFM) 2027 and January 2027

The CPC schedule listed Oct. 15 for the November and November-January outlooks. The CPC also posts an updated monthly outlook near the end of each month; its 30-day discussion on Sept. 30, 2026 updated the October outlook, and month-end updates appear on that page. The printable at the end of the story lists the five dates above; mark them on a November 2026 printable calendar and a December 2026 printable calendar.

What does the current winter outlook say by region?

NOAA’s Oct. 15, 2026 release covers December 2026 to February 2027. The headline says El Niño “looms large,” and the release says “a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift.”

NOAA outlook, December 2026 to February 2027	Where
Warmer than average favored	Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Near-normal temperatures most likely	Parts of the Southeast, including Florida
Equal chances for temperature	Hawaii and much of the Southwest
Wetter than average most likely	The southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast, and the East Coast
Drier than average odds	Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes and the Pacific Islands

Wetter than average conditions are most likely across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and along the East Coast, NOAA says. These are outlooks of odds across large regions, not local forecasts, and the Nov. 19 update may change them. Our table does not include a local snowfall forecast because the sources we used do not give one.

How does this compare with last year?

In 2025, the CPC’s Oct. 9 discussion had a La Niña Advisory, and its next discussion was set for Nov. 13, 2025. This year’s status is El Niño Advisory, with the next discussion on Nov. 12.

Where can you get the updates?

The CPC’s Oct. 8 discussion lists an email list for ENSO updates: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. For other dates on the calendar this winter, see the winter solstice 2026 story and the king tides 2026 dates, and keep a printable weekly calendar handy for the release days.